We’re in a market cycle where AI, defense-tech, and crypto-related stocks are ripping. Some of them look unstoppable. That kind of action can stir up some real FOMO, but it’s important to keep perspective and still buy below somethings intrinsic value. Potentially once-in-a-generation companies are also still in private markets. And as private equity tokenization becomes a reality, those opportunities may finally become accessible to retail investors with smaller capital requirements.
Like SpaceX, OpenAI, and other private companies becoming behemoths, I feel Anduril Industries is slowly becoming one of those companies worth watching closely.
Anduril Industries is a U.S. defense technology company that remains private but already commands an estimate valuation of ~$30.5b to $42.3 billion, resulting in a ~200% 1yr return. It was founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey, best known for creating Oculus, and several other co-founders with backgrounds in national security and software. The company builds autonomous defense systems combining physical hardware with AI-driven software.
It’s growing quickly, generating over $1 billion in revenue in 2024, and its systems are already being used by the U.S. Department of Defense, Customs and Border Protection, and allied governments.
If you’re interested in the full back story, my suggestion is to watch the YouTube video below:
Core Products and Focus
Anduril develops a range of autonomous military tools, including:
Lattice, the company’s central AI software platform that connects and coordinates drones, sensors, and surveillance systems.
Ghost and Altius drones, built for battlefield reconnaissance and loitering missions.
Anvil, an autonomous counter-drone system that physically intercepts and disables incoming drones.
Fury, a jet-powered drone designed to operate alongside fighter jets.
Roadrunner, a reusable vertical-launch interceptor system designed for missile defense and high-speed threats.
Anduril also acquired Dive Technologies (underwater drones) and took over the U.S. Army’s IVAS AR goggle project from Microsoft.
Its strategy is to build systems upfront with private capital and then sell complete, deployable solutions to government buyers, rather than waiting for government RFPs before development begins.
Its cap table includes most of the prominent venture firms in tech and defense: Andreessen Horowitz, General Catalyst, Lux Capital, and others. It’s one of the few companies in the space with both deep-pocketed backing and actual government contracts to show for it.
IPO Outlook
Anduril has publicly stated that it’s not planning to go public yet. Palmer Luckey has said the company wants the public markets to better understand its business model first. That could mean 2026 or later.
They’ve raised enough capital to delay an IPO if they want. But when they do go public, it will likely be one of the most closely watched offerings in the defense and AI space.
How It Compares
It’s worth comparing Anduril to a few names already in the public markets:
Palantir is primarily a software company but has become a symbol of the government-tech crossover. Currently valued at $312B, trading around 225x forward earnings.
AeroVironment (AVAV) is a drone manufacturer that’s seen its stock rise sharply after its last earnings report with rising demand for loitering munitions. Its market cap is around $11 billion. Anduril’s valuation is already nearly 3× that, which suggests investors see a broader total addressable market.
Unlike Palantir, Anduril builds and sells autonomous physical systems, drones, interceptors, towers, alongside its software platform. And unlike AeroVironment, it isn’t dependent on any one product category.
Context & Market Thoughts
Defense-Tech Checklist: Anduril’s combination of physical AI robots, mission-critical software, founder leadership, and a blue-chip cap table means it hits nearly all criterion investors look for ahead of an IPO. Palmer Luckey already has a billion-dollar exit (Oculus) behind him.
Global Signals: Spotify CEO Daniel Ek recently bought into a German drone/AI firm; Israel demonstrated AI-coordinated drone strikes in Iran; Chinese researchers flew fully autonomous swarms through a rainforest—clear evidence that advanced autonomy is moving from labs to real-world operations.
IPO Timing vs. Market Understanding: Management says they’ll wait until the market “understands” the business model before going public. Given how quickly AI-defense names like Palantir have been bid up, some investors already feel the market does understand, and would likely be receptive sooner.
Competition with AVAV: AeroVironment’s share price has spiked, but Anduril competes on a broader front, pairing hardware with an AI battle-network architecture. AVAV is largely a single-product drone vendor; Anduril is positioning as a full-stack defense platform.
Avoiding FOMO: It’s tempting to chase over-valued public names—whether Palantir at triple-digit multiples, Circle’s private-market surge, or CoreWeave in AI cloud. During IPO flurries I’ve missed new deals because my capital was tied up elsewhere. Staying liquid for unexpected high-quality offerings, Anduril included, remains a priority.
PE Tokenization Ahead: Brokerages like Robinhood are exploring fractional or tokenized ownership in private companies. If that rolls out, retail investors could access firms like Anduril pre-IPO, changing the liquidity calculus.
Supply vs. Valuation: Mega-IPOs (e.g., OpenAI at ~$300 billion, SpaceX at ~$416 billion) could lead to short-term selling across tech as new supply hits the market. Historically, any pullback in the NASDAQ 100 or Mag 7 is brief; capital tends to rotate back into companies showing durable value. An abundant mindset expecting more opportunities rather than fewer, helps navigate this environment.
Closing Thoughts
I’m watching Anduril for several reasons that I listed above. It’s rare to find a company that combines AI, hardware, and real defense contracts at scale. It’s founder-led, well-funded, and operating in an industry that is clearly shifting toward autonomy and software-defined weapons systems.
That doesn’t guarantee a successful private or public investment, but it’s certainly one to have on the radar for all tech investors interested in the AI space.
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References:
Unicorn Anduril's Valuation Surged 2x in 1 Year. Is It a Buy When it Goes Public?
How to invest in Anduril pre-IPO
Palmer Luckey on Anduril’s growth plans, a future IPO and how ChatGPT has impacted AI
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) - stock analysis
How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran
Watch a swarm of drones autonomously track a human through a dense forest
Spotify CEO Daniel Ek leads $690m+ funding round for AI drone maker Helsing
Disclosure:
This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.