Podcast Summary – Key Takeaways
I had the pleasure of sitting down with George from South Florida, the co-host of the Investing or Gambling podcast, for a conversation about Trump’s latest tariffs, the state of the economy, inflation, and how long-term investors should think about wealth in a world where the U.S. dollar is actively being eroded.
Here are the big themes that stood out from our discussion:
Trump’s Tariff Strategy – Leverage or Long-Term Mistake?
We both agreed that tariffs as a negotiating tool aren’t inherently bad. If they’re used to bring countries to the table and open up export opportunities for U.S. businesses, that’s a win.
George noted that manufacturing can help rebuild the middle class, but I pushed back slightly on whether it’s realistic in a four-year political window. These aren’t the same steel mills from 1969. Any modern reshoring effort would require new technology, infrastructure, and time we may not have.
There was also acknowledgment that manufacturing has changed—George reflected on his time working in old steel mills and factories in the 1970s, and how today’s reshoring would likely require tech-heavy automation, modern infrastructure, & not the same labor setup we had decades ago.
Dollar Devaluation & the Asset Owner's Mindset
We kept circling back to the core idea: the U.S. government’s policy is to erode the dollar.
It’s not a conspiracy—it’s inflation targeting. Whether it's 2% or 4%, over 30 years the math is the same. Cash becomes worthless. Assets inflate.
If you want to build wealth, own things. Don’t hold cash.
George explained how a 30-year mortgage is one of the few “short the dollar” plays available to regular people. By year 30, you’re paying off your loan with a dollar worth 55 cents. That’s the power of leverage in an inflationary regime.
We talked:
Owning a home
Buying the SPY or QQQ over time
Gold and Bitcoin as hard assets in a soft money system
He even made the case that paying for a house in cash is the worst move you can make if your goal is to build wealth. Get the mortgage. Lock in the 30-year loan. Let the government devalue the rest.
QQQ vs. SPY vs. SMH: What the Charts Say
George walked through how he’s watching key technical levels on the major indices. While he’s not trading actively at the moment, he follows the 50-day and 200-day EMA on SPY, QQQ, and SMH closely.
Here’s where he stands:
QQQ: very close to death cross (50-day crossed below the 200-day), and the 200 EMA is now sloping downward. This is a red flag for many technically-minded traders and investors.
SPY: Also close to forming a death cross. The 200 EMA is slightly trending down. George doesn’t like the look of it—and he thinks others see it too.
SMH (Semiconductor ETF): Also breaking down, which I attribute to global trade exposure. Many of these chip companies—like LAM Research—depend on exports to China and other regions that may retaliate against Trump’s tariff escalation.
Gold: One of the strongest charts out there. Breaking out as oil falls and the dollar weakens. George even joked about buying gold at Costco.
Bitcoin, Gold, and Government Distrust
George is still a Bitcoin skeptic, but he admits that it fits the macro puzzle:
It’s a limited supply asset that can’t be inflated away like fiat. But he raised fair concerns: if it really works, will the government allow it?We talked about:
Bitcoin as a store of value.
Bitcoin’s threat to treasuries and fiat loyalty.
Regulatory pressure and tax control.
The parallels between Bitcoin cold storage and gold under your mattress.
George agreed that gold and Bitcoin both appeal to those who want to exit the fiat system—but the big difference is how easy it is to move Bitcoin, which may eventually create conflict with legal structures and tax enforcement.
Bonds: As an investment vehicle
We discussed why bonds feel broken in today’s environment.
I pulled up the TLT chart and noted how far long-duration bond ETFs have fallen since 2020. Even though many people are attracted to the yields, they overlook the drawdowns in price:
His biggest concern is the U.S. government has to keep selling debt to refinance existing obligations—and it's doing so at higher and higher rates. If foreign buyers like Japan or China step back, that could send yields even higher, putting pressure on bond prices again.
“The bond auction is a market. If buyers don’t show up for a 4.2% 10-year, we’ll have to raise it to 4.6%. That’s a problem.”
George avoids long-duration bonds entirely at this time.
He’s skeptical of bond mutual funds, especially in retirement accounts, because they just keep bleeding.
He prefers short-term Treasury yields for any cash-like positioning—especially when they pay over 4%.
“I just don’t buy bonds. Right now, they scare me.”
Conclusion:
Whether it’s tariffs, inflation data, or Fed hesitation, the truth is we’re living in a financial system that rewards asset ownership (over the long-term). It’s important to “own things” and be able to stomach short-term volatility in the assets you own.
George and I may disagree on some tactics, but we both came to the same conclusion:
In a country built on credit, debt, and dollar erosion—owning productive or scarce assets is the only way to survive, and maybe even thrive.
That doesn’t mean all-in, all-at-once. It means layering in or buying below an assets’ intrinsic value.
If you’re sitting in cash, ask yourself: what do I believe will outpace inflation over the next 10 years? Stocks. Real estate. Gold. Bitcoin. A pool of these assets could be the correct answer.
Thanks again to George for joining me. And thank you to everyone who continues to follow Rigatoni Capital.
You can also follow George through the Investing or Gambling Podcast:
Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
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