I Added to a Core Position Today

I broke my rules today.

I try not to. I’ve said on this blog many times, I’m not adding anything unless the Nasdaq 100, QQQ, broke below $399 per share. That hasn’t happened.

But the good thing about managing your own portfolio is you have no boss, no client calls, no TPS reports due. Just my judgement when I wake up each morning.

So, I added a little more to my Amazon (AMZN) position today.

This wasn’t about catching a falling knife or making a tactical trade. This is a core position, and I wanted to ensure AMZN remains in the mix among my largest holdings. It’s currently my 6th largest position including QQQ. I want it to have a real shot at climbing into the top 5, maybe even top 3 one day. Not because I expect it to have crazy gains, but because I expect it to grow steadily.

Outside of Nvidia, I believe Amazon is the best long-term investment in the entire Mag7 or QQQ.

On February 10th, I wrote about why Amazon was on my 2025 watchlist. Back then, it was trading at 38x earnings. That felt fairly expensive, and I didn’t bite then. Fast forward two months, we’re now at 29x. Yes, I would’ve loved to buy more at $161 during the April 4th lows. But waiting around for another dip might just mean missing the opportunity altogether. Today, my average cost is $114 per share.

$AMZN 1 year

This is an uncomfortable time to be short-term bullish on Amazon. Apparently, a very large percentage of goods sold on Amazon are made in China mainland. I chose not to reference the percentage I found online. It was so high, I couldn’t even trust it. Margins are likely to get wiped out by many vendors in the Amazon ecosystem. I’m also not confident this kind of disruption from tariffs is fully priced into Amazon yet. It’s not clear to me the market has fully digested what this kind of disruption looks like.

Any investor cautious of AMZN today shouldn’t just be focused on tariffs from China. To simplify things, the bigger headwind is a broader consumer slowdown. When demand weakens, vendors pull back on everything; advertising, new product launches, and overall investment. Since many of Amazon’s revenue segments are interconnected, a slowdown in one area can ripple through their entire ecosystem, just like it could with Meta or Google for example.

However, even with these macro headwinds that are very BAD (tariffs, inflation, a softer consumer, maybe even a pause in AI investments), I still believe in the core fundamentals of the business. My bet is on the next 10 years, not 10 months.

Could Amazon stock fall back to $150 per share? Yes. I’m not predicting anything in the short term here.

Back on on February 10th, I outlined some reasons why I believe in Amazon. Re-reading them now, they hold up the same even with this new scary backdrop.

1. Amazon digitized brick-and-mortar shopping better than anyone else, and I still can’t see the endgame. They’re disrupting retail every single day. Amazon Prime is a subscription model service that’s hard to give up, creating sticky customer habits and recurring revenue.

2. Amazon is a hedge against outdated, low margin, business models. Any business that still relies solely on mall space or foot traffic has to reckon with the impact of Amazon, it’s a direct threat to their long-term survival.

3. Amazon has a powerful ecosystem. Advertising, AWS, logistics, devices, AI, streaming, healthcare. Diversified, yet tightly connected.

4. Amazon is still growing. This doesn’t feel like a company coasting toward maturity. It still feels like a disruptor with a strong balance sheet and international ground to cover.

So yes, I broke rules today. No, I’m not embarrassed. Amazon still checks every box I care about as a long-term compounder.

Here is my post on Amazon from February 10th if you’re interested.

Thank you for reading!

---

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.