What I Bought Today for My Birthday
$QQQ $AMZN $ORCL $CMG $SPOT $APP
A Swoosh Down in the Market
Yesterday afternoon, Trump made headlines when he said he’s “not even looking at the stock market” in response to the market’s reaction to tariffs. Honestly, most people shouldn’t be looking at the stock market all the time, either. As a long-term investor, it shouldn’t consume your life or emotions.
That being said, I was very interested in adding to the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) approaching a 10% correction around $485. I told you before that when we hit these levels, I would also look at opportunities in individual stocks.
By noon today, the QQQ had swooshed down to around $480 per share, marking around a ~11% drawdown from its mid-February high of $539.
It was finally time for me to buy. I have been writing almost daily on substack with the same message, that I’m not doing anything until we get to this level, making for my posts to become very boring (my apologies).
Limit Buys for Those Who Can’t Watch All Day
We live in a digital economy and a digital world. That means, as retail investors, we have the same advantages as institutional investors sitting in front of their desk. We don’t need to waste time trying to get a hold of our broker to place an order. If you have access to a cell phone, you can take advantage of market dips no matter where you are or what you’re doing.
I completely understand that most people can’t monitor the market throughout the day. They have jobs, meetings, commutes, and responsibilities that keep them busy. That’s why I think setting limit buys is a great idea if you’re in that situation. It allows you to execute your plan without needing to actively watch every tick.
A Birthday Buy in the Parking Lot
Not to bore my readers, but today was my birthday. I also had the pleasure of getting a chest X-ray (doctor’s orders). Nothing alarming—just some chest congestion that won’t go away.
Now, this is going to sound silly, but while I was in the parking lot after my X-ray, I added QQQ around $485 per share—just as I had promised my friends and readers for weeks. That marked a full 10% correction in the Q’s. I also added to my position in Amazon (AMZN) around $199 per share. Shortly after, I got back on my phone for business calls and made a quick stop at my deli of choice before heading home.
While eating, I got a few texts: “Hey, we’re crashing now, for real, for real.” I put my wrap and drink down, opened my brokerage app, and made more buys on QQQ at $481 per share. It was my birthday after all, so I decided to also start new positions in AppLovin (APP), Spotify (SPOT), and Oracle (ORCL), and I also bought back Chipotle (CMG), which I had previously swing-traded.
Will all of these be long-term holds? I don’t know yet. But hopefully, they will be.
But the point I’m trying to make here is that I’m rarely ever conveniently sitting at my home office computer when I decide it’s time to buy. Market opportunities don’t wait for ideal conditions. The last time we had this kind of “swoosh” down (around August 5th, 2024), I was driving on I-95 during vacation—I had to pull over just to make my buys.
The Market Bounce and What’s Next
By 2 PM, the market turned green. Apparently Fed Chair Jerome Powell had some calming words during an interview… honestly who cares what the excuse is for the bounce. I think we can all agree investors had the same mindset I did, and wanted to buy this swoosh down. The QQQ ran back up to $491 by 3 PM. My portfolio finished green for the day, and while a trader might celebrate making a quick buck, I’m not a trader.
I don’t know if we’ll retest today’s lows—maybe we do, maybe we don’t. But regardless of what happens next, it feels good to buy at a low cost-basis for every new position today.
Most of my holdings are buy-and-hold. But once in a while, I’ll swing trade a stock I’m not in love with—CMG is an example. I can live without being a CMG investor. I can’t live without being a QQQ or AMZN investor.
So, what’s next? If the market drops further than today’s lows, I’ll do my best to scramble for money and add more. But $485 is no longer a buy signal for me. Now, I’d be looking at a 15% or 20% drawdown as my next level of interest:
15% correction in QQQ = ~$458 per share
20% correction in QQQ = ~$431 per share
Not committing to either level yet, but $425 is a key support level (August 5, 2024, lows). Not saying we’ll get there, but it’s always good to mentally prepare and have a plan. In my opinion, this level would be an excellent long-term buying opportunity.
Thoughts on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has something to say. And everyone is emotional about it.
I won’t bore you with all the details from last night, but most of you know the difference between a reserve and an acquisition plan.
A reserve means we hold the Bitcoin we already have, but don’t actively buy more.
An acquisition plan means we’re actively purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
The latter is obviously more bullish for Bitcoin, but overall, yesterday was a positive step. If the U.S. isn’t ready to acquire more BTC, then it’s not ready. Every nation-state gets the price it deserves when buying Bitcoin.
A large portion of the U.S. population would be furious if they found out tax dollars were being used to buy Bitcoin—or if the U.S. was printing or borrowing money to acquire it. You can agree or disagree. I’m not here to waste time debating why Bitcoin should be a strategic reserve asset and that we should acquire more.
Please note, I’m not referring to any other digital or crypto assets. I’m only talking about Bitcoin here.
We Survived Tariff Tuesday
After all the commotion this week, I do feel like some of the worst is behind us. A lot of the bad news seems to have been priced into the markets, in my opinion. Even if I’m wrong, and we have more pain ahead, at some point people will look back and realize that a lot of these headlines had little impact in U.S. tech stocks, like the MAG7 and the Nasdaq100. If we see earnings get hit a quarter or two, these businesses will more than likely recover and get back on track.
After a rough few weeks in the markets, I hope everyone enjoys the weekend. We have a lot to be thankful for, and we’re getting closer to March Madness and The Masters. For me, these types of events keep me sane and give me a healthy break from the markets—something I recommend for hardcore investors who are passionate about stocks. It’s always good to have other interests.
Thanks for reading, and God Bless America.
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Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.